#Google trends 2020 united states driver
#Google trends 2020 united states full

Source: Google Trends as of 21 June 2020. Google Search Trends: Flights (US, Weekly)

#Google trends 2020 united states driver

So, while poor sales data alone wouldn’t govern whether an active manager enters a position, it can allow them to better assess whether market movements are sentiment-driven, or have an underlying fundamental driver which needs to be accounted, and better test their investment thesis in relation to each stock. However, Google search trends show that, in fact, after a spike in February (when demand was likely driven by the urgent need to book flights home before the global economy entered lockdown), there has been very little pick-up since (Figure 5).Īnd even more accuracy can be gained by combining multiple sources of alternative data: sales data based on credit cards shows that while airlines may again be open for business, very few people are actually buying tickets (Figure 6). Alternative Data as a Contrarian IndicatorĪnd as weeks go on and country after country comes out of lockdown, it would seem only natural to think that hospitality and leisure stocks – such as airlines – would see their share prices rise. Website Unique Visits: Grubhub, DoorDash, Uber Eats and OpenTable On the other hand, OpenTable – which offers a restaurant reservation service – saw website visits fall as restaurants closed their doors (Figure 4). Food delivery businesses thrived during the coronacrisis, with Grubhub, DoorDash and Uber Eats all seeing an uptick in their website visits.

Website visits are another useful alternative data point, allowing us to separate company specific trends from general sectoral performance. Google Search Trends: a Mexican Restaurant Chain (US, Weekly) Importantly, such data can be reviewed in real time, allowing portfolio managers to initiate and/or adjust positions before official earnings announcements affect the price of the stock. So, while it would be natural to expect the lockdown to have a negative impact on the restaurant’s earnings, looking at a simple but alternative data source such as Google search suggests otherwise. However, in the aftermath of lockdown, searches for the restaurant chain increased, as consumers looked to continue eating their favourite food but switched from eating in to takeaway and delivery options (Figure 3).

Intuitively, one would assume that such a business would not do well during the coronacrisis: restaurants have a business model which is not conducive to social distancing and have been closed in many countries since the start of the lockdowns. Take, for example, the number of Google searches for a Mexican restaurant chain. When we combine it with other forms of alternative data, we are looking at datasets which offer active portfolio managers very powerful tools with which to potentially enhance their investment processes. Whilst not a crystal ball, by allowing us to see into the minds of consumers in something close to real time, it provides invaluable investment insights. Not a Crystal Ball, But the Next Best Thing? Google Search Trends: Loss of Taste and Loss of Smell (US, Weekly)

Google Search Trends: Push-Ups, Freezing Vegetables, Toilet Paper and Recipes (US, Weekly)

#Google trends 2020 united states full

And as more infections occurred, searches for specific symptoms rocketed – to the point where ‘loss of taste’ and ‘loss of smell’ were added to the World Health Organisation’s and US agencies’ lists as a “less common symptom” of coronavirus almost a full month after these search trends appeared! 1 Figure 1. Then, as consumers adjusted to lockdown and locked to establish a new routine, businesses that sell fitness equipment saw a pick-up in demand. First, supermarkets and household goods companies experienced unprecedented demand. These examples represent some of the most common search terms during each period, and had an eerily close relationship to consumer behaviour during the coronacrisis. It’s astounding what these google searches can tell us about trends. Google ‘Loss of taste’ and ‘loss of smell’.

Mid-March 2020: You’re feeling a bit ill, and seem to have lost your sense of taste and sense of smell.

Mid-March, 2020: You’re over the same recipe of cooking those vegetables you had frozen early on in the lockdown.

Early March, 2020: A few days into lockdown, and no gym access, you figure you should get some exercise in somehow.

Of course, everyone is also in a panic about toilet paper, so you also google where to bulk buy that commodity.

Mid-February, 2020: As it becomes obvious that the world is going into lockdown, you google what vegetables you can freeze.